Amidst scepticism surrounding Tesla’s ambitious Robotaxi and Optimus initiatives, analysts at BNP Paribas are adopting a surprisingly optimistic stance on Rivian, Tesla’s domestic electric vehicle rival. This comes even as Tesla faces challenges in meeting its own targets.
BNP Paribas maintains an "underperform" rating on Tesla, setting a price target of $280, significantly below the consensus hold rating and $397.26 target indicated by MarketBeat data. The firm’s scepticism stems from doubts about the progress, or lack thereof, in Tesla’s Robotaxi and humanoid robot projects. They highlight the "stagnated" growth of Tesla’s Robotaxi service in Austin and San Francisco, questioning its expansion into Dallas and Houston. Analysts suggest Tesla faces a "steep ramp" to achieve its promised seven-city expansion by year-end, a commitment made by CEO Elon Musk during the previous earnings call.
Furthermore, BNP Paribas expresses concern over the lack of visible progress in the commercialisation of Optimus, Musk’s ambitious project to produce one million humanoid robots annually. The firm points to Tesla’s substantial cash burn, estimated at $7 billion this year, and the anticipated massive multi-year investments in a TeraFab and 100 GW solar capacity. This places immense pressure on Tesla to demonstrate tangible progress in both Robotaxi and Optimus development.
In contrast, BNP Paribas is more optimistic about Rivian, despite the company lagging behind Tesla in several areas. Rivian’s goals for the year appear more attainable, leading analysts to favour the struggling EV startup. Rivian’s shares have a price target of $23, which is 26% higher than the closing price of $16.92 on Monday, April 20.
While anticipating improved deliveries, BNP Paribas believes that Rivian’s success in 2026 will hinge on its ability to offer FSD-like "point-to-point" hands-free driving by the end of the year. The recent expanded Robotaxi partnership with Uber, valued at $1.25 billion, is seen as a positive catalyst, potentially boosting the firm’s expectations for Rivian’s stock by $4 per share.
Analyst Ratings and Price Targets
| Company | Rating | Price Target |
|---|---|---|
| Tesla | Underperform | $280 |
| Rivian | Optimistic | $23 |
